This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card at Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests a bit and I enjoy the new choice of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy and $30k belongs to 1st location. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games.
Cash Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate for cash games, and I was just going to decide on the principal event stack for my cash game play of the week. But, I can see the main event just scoring ~100 total points and when I’m stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I believe Shane Young makes a fantastic cash game play. I really don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has since I really do believe this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I think he’s a top floor since this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I think he’s the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this battle with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I really do think he’s 100-point upside in a decision, and that I also think he can complete this fight. However, I feel like he’s a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my cash game play of the week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this battle is by becoming KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the toes too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is exactly why he’s my GPP drama of the week and not my cash game play of this week. In cash, I want to lock in higher flooring and that’s not what we have here. I enjoy this for GPPs because when he loses at $9.4k it will not matter how many things he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come away with a profit if he dropped a decision at that price and still scored 30-40 points, we’d just need to hit on our other spots. We do not need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he’s 100+ upside since he will be the fighter wanting to grapple and that I could see him becoming multiple takedowns as well as a submission. I believe he gets a 1st or 2nd round submission and I do not expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I enjoy him as a pivot away from a big name who might be popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to remain position for as long as it lasts. I personally see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s true, then I believe Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs since he will have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a fair amount of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not put him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or conclusion, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he’s my underdog play of the week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have picked him as my fade each time he’s fought so that I will roll with it . The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by obtaining a knockout win. He does not strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and that he will not be heading for almost any takedowns. Even if he receives a conclusion win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter when I roll them and with his $7.9k price tag, so I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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